France enters final legislature with strong far-right. What does this mean | World

French political parties compete on Sunday (30) in the first round of the mysterious legislative elections, in which the far right, which leads in opinion polls, is approaching power.

The elections will be held approximately a month after French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved Parliament. The main goal of his decision was to prevent success in the European Parliament from being mirrored back home – as the nationalists gained more visibility.

On June 9, Macron's REM party was defeated in the European Parliament elections by the RN party led by Marine Le Pen, a far-right populist politician.

Macron's ally in the election, Gabriel Attal, said on Friday that he wanted to “prevent extremists, especially the far right, from winning this election.” The speech is aimed at urging the French to vote for President Emmanuel Macron's coalition. His opponent is the young far-right leader Jordan Bardella, 28, of Le Pen's party.

Parliamentary elections will be held in two rounds, on June 30 and July 7.

A poll conducted by OpinionWay and published by the newspaper Les Echos last Friday (28) showed that the party (RN) could reach 37% of the popular vote, an increase of two percentage points compared to last week's result. The Juntos party, from Macron's centrist bloc, received 20%, down two points compared to the last post.

The outcome of the French second round is somewhat uncertain due to the country's own electoral system: the 577 deputies are elected in non-named constituencies, with a majority system in two rounds.

The Socialists, Communists and environmental activists, allies of the radical France Insubissa party in the left-wing National Front coalition, warned that they would withdraw their candidates if they finished third in the second round to give the government candidate more chances. Against one of the extreme right.

What would happen if the far right took control of Parliament?

Currently, Macron's ruling party has 169 deputies in the National Assembly, the largest group in the 577-seat assembly. The strongest opposition party, the National Rally party led by Le Pen, has 88 seats.

For the party to win an absolute majority in the French House of Representatives, it will need to increase the number of its representatives to 289. If the party wins, it will need to increase the number of its representatives to 289. Macron will have to name a competitor for the position of prime minister. Whoever holds this position will be responsible for selecting ministers in the government.

If that happened – the president and prime minister were from different political parties – it would be called “coexistence”. France witnessed three similar periods.

In this case, The President retains the leadership role in defense as commander-in-chief and in foreign policy – The constitution stipulates that he negotiates international treaties – but he will lose the power to determine domestic policy.

This last happened in 1997, when centre-right President Jacques Chirac dissolved parliament thinking he would win a stronger majority, but unexpectedly lost to a left-wing coalition led by the Socialist Party.

Macron's party has repeatedly warned of the danger of the far right coming to power – and has sought to soften the image inherited from its founder, Jean-Marie Le Pen, who is known for his racist comments.

Since Marine Le Pen took over the leadership of the National Rally in 2011, she has consistently tried to argue for populist policies for the French. But at the same time, she has xenophobic positions and ideals close to the Russian government.

She has already indicated, for example, that if Macron comes to power, he will find it difficult to send troops to support Ukraine against Russia.

According to Radio France Internationale (RFI), the abbreviation also wants to leave the region's carbon footprint aside, as it plans to offer incentives to French industries. The RN is expected to govern in a similar way to the Italian administration of Giorgia Meloni, which adopts a discourse focused on taking interest in climate negotiations internationally and domestically, allowing ministers and allies to question climate science.

There is also concern about Africans who have relatives in the country. Le Pen's party has already said it intends to prevent certain “sensitive” positions, such as in the defense sector, for example, from being off-limits to dual nationals.

James Shields, a professor of French studies at the University of Warwick in the United Kingdom, told the BBC that racist and anti-Semitic references were behind it, but the old anti-immigrant and authoritarian law and order measures followed by Le Pen's father's former party remain practically unchanged.