After 'Nike's V', 'square root' GDP expected to extend throughout 2022

It would be best if we were to the far right letter “V”. but the Draw which describes the rhythm Economie From the third chapter it looks more like Sqrt. The figure that will come in the next quarters of 2022 tends to be formed by a long line that barely points upward. On the contrary, it may deviate slightly to the bottom.

The lines that show the performance of economic activity always follow the path of ups and downs. It is not Brazil’s fault. The pace of the global economy is characterized by periods of expansion, regression, and paralysis.

The pandemic suddenly veered off the line on the chart of global economic activity. And one from Brazil went with him. In the first and second quarters of 2020, GDP (Start) of the country sank. It was the first part of the “V”.

Then came the effects of the federal government’s payment of emergency aid to low-income families. The program contributed to the graph line entering the ascending path to complete the “V”.

In the worst moments of the pandemic, economists tried to guess what character we were in. can be “U”: sharp dip; then a period in red without growing or sinking further; Finally getting the missile back.

It can be a refund similar to the design that is a logo nike. Retreat followed by a steady, but smoother, slower resume.

It would be a nightmare if the country were in the “L”: a sharp drop in GDP followed by a recession as the economy fell sharply in value.

But the graph of the economy after the second quarter of 2020 was, for a moment at least, more like a “V”.

In a quarterly comparison, the Brazilian economy grew by 0.3% in the last three months of 2019; down from a decline of 8.9% in the second quarter of 2020; It grew 7.8% in the third quarter of 2020. But since then, the pace of the economy has slowed.

Quarter after quarter, the GDP line is again pointing lower, reaching a 0.1% decline in the third quarter of this year, as evidenced by data released by IBGE on Thursday (2). Between April and June, GDP had already fallen by 0.4%.

And the picture of the economy (looking at the previous quarterly comparison) that at one point looked like a “V” was turning out to be a distorted square root symbol. any strong decrease in activity; Equally strong recovery then lukewarm soothing.

NS Presidential election NS high interest, 2022 is expected to be the year of low economic growth – if there is growth. Scenarios suggest a 1% home rise; Others refer to zero growth and some to below zero.

If there are no new bumps like the one from the pandemic in 2020, the activity graph goes from that skewed square root of the third quarter to follow as a long line running throughout 2022, describing apathetic activity, with little to no ups or downs.

– Photo: Art / Valor