Polls show that one year before the presidential election, Trump is ahead in battleground states around the world

United States President Joe Biden, of the Democratic Party, stands behind former President and leader of the Republican race for the nomination, Donald Trump, in five of the six most important states in the presidential race, exactly one year ago. Opinion polls published on Sunday showed that the US elections come at a time when citizens are concerned about the age of the current president and are dissatisfied with the way he is managing the economy.

However, additional results from polls published by The New York Times and Siena College on Monday showed that if Trump is convicted in the legal cases against him, part of his support in the so-called key states – whose position ultimately changed in the US presidential race from… election to election – it could drop by as much as 6 percentage points, “enough to decide a potential election.”

Results on Sunday show Trump leading in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, while Biden leads in Wisconsin. The incumbent president defeated Trump in all six states in 2020, but Trump currently leads in those places by an average of 48% to 44%.

Although polls show Biden and Trump neck-and-neck in vote totals, presidential elections are typically decided by results in key states.

Biden’s victories in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — all places Trump won in 2016 — were key to his victory in 2020. He will likely have to preserve many of those victories to be re-elected.

“Predictions from more than a year ago tend to be different a year later. Don’t just take our word for it. Predicted Gallup defeats President Obama by 8 percentage points, winning handily a year later.

He added that the Biden campaign is “working hard to reach out and mobilize our diverse coalition of voters a year before we have to choose between our winning grassroots agenda and the unpopular Republican extremism of MAGA (referring to the “Make America Great Again” slogan). ) from Trump. “We will win 2024 by focusing and working, not worrying about research.”

But Biden’s coalition appears to be eroding, according to the poll. Voters under the age of 30 prefer the president, who is 80, by just one percentage point. His lead over Latino voters has dropped to single digits, and his lead in urban centers is half that of rural areas.

Black voters, who make up an important part of the demographics of Biden’s coalition, now record 22% support for Trump in these states, a level unprecedented, according to The New York Times, in a recent Republican presidential election. .

The margin of error in each state in Sunday’s poll is 4.4 to 4.8 percentage points, which is larger than Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania, for example.