Elections in Argentina: Sergio Massa opens the door to an advantage over Javier Miley, says Intel Atlas

Elections in Argentina: Sergio Massa opens the door to an advantage over Javier Miley, says Intel Atlas

Massa received 30.6% of voting intentions, while Javier Maili and Patricia Bullrich are technically tied on 25.2% and 25% respectively.

Javier Miley and Sergio Massa

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Sputnik Brazil – A poll conducted after the Argentine election debate on Sunday (8) showed that government candidate Sergio Massa (Union for the Fatherland) achieved a leadership lead over his main rivals Javier Miley of La Libertad Avanza and Patricia. Bullrich, from Juntos por el Cambio.

According to research conducted by Atlas Intel and Released This Wednesday (11), Sergio Massa has 30.6% of voting intentions, while Javier Maili and Patricia Bullrich are technically tied with 25.2% and 25% respectively. Margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.

Juan Chiaretti, from the Justice Party, the same as current president Alberto Fernandez, received 11.8% of voting intentions. Miriam Bregman, from the Socialist Workers Party, received 3.9%. The number of undecided voters was only 2.1%, while the total number of empty and invalid votes was 0.7%. But the result does not guarantee Massa’s victory.

Under the Argentine electoral system, a candidate to win in the first round must receive at least 45% of the votes, or 40% with a difference of ten percentage points over the other candidates. If these conditions are not met, the election moves to a second round, where whoever receives the most votes wins.

Second shift analysis – As a result of this result, the Argentine electoral race appears to be heading to a second round, a scenario also analyzed by Intel Atlas Research. The clashes between Massa, Milli and Bullrich and Massa, Milli and Bullrich were compared.

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  • Massa White, blank, or hesitant, 19.7% in this case;
  • Bullrich x Massa: The victory was clearer for Patricia Bullrich with a percentage of 42.3% compared to 37.2% for Sergio Massa; White, null and undecided total 20.4%;
  • Miley x Bullrich: In this case, the win again goes to Patricia Bullrich with 37.4%, while Javier Miley gets 32.3%; White, blank, and undecided people make up the highest rate here at 30.3%.

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