Covid: Why is science saying staying home reduces transmission, contrary to Eduardo Bolsonaro’s tweet

The MP’s statements contradict what the World Health Organization says about the closures.

Coronavirus is spread mainly through droplets in the air, when there is close interaction between people.

By confining people to their homes, the lockdown reduces these interactions and clusters, reducing the spread of the virus. In several European countries where lockdowns have been used, there has been a sharp drop in the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

Three studies have been published in the scientific journal The Lancet – one in Italy, One about France And another on United kingdom The lockdowns adopted in these three countries were considered effective in reducing the number of cases and deaths, as well as hospitalizations.

“Prevention measures have overcome less stringent restrictions on reducing cumulative deaths,” says the British study, published in December last year.

There is a possibility that people infected with the virus could transmit the infection to others in their homes. This possibility is high, because the proximity is great within the family environment and sometimes the environment ventilation is risky, which facilitates infection.

However, this type of “at-home” infection falls dramatically during lockdown, because people move less on the streets and fewer people bring the virus home. Hence, the measure helps contain the epidemic, not expand it.

Experts heard by BBC News Brazil indicate that a lockdown similar to the one that has been adopted in other major democracies around the world, such as in Europe, is a major way for Brazil to avoid the 5,000 daily coronavirus deaths.

On May 19, 2020, the country for the first time reached a milestone of 1,000 daily deaths. Ten months later, the country has reached 2,000 deaths per day. In just three weeks, that number jumped to 3,000 in early April.

Five days later, on 4/6, a new record entered the history of the epidemic: the country lost a total of 4,165 people within 24 hours due to infection with the Coronavirus.

According to the experts the report heard, there is no way out of the crisis without a national lockdown for at least three weeks. They explain that with reduced circulation on the streets, the Coronavirus is finding fewer people at risk of infection.

People who leave home, take public transportation, and walk around stores end up near hundreds of other people. So they have a better chance of finding someone sick and contracting the virus – scientists call this transmission and interaction process in the chain of transmission of the disease.

Lockdown breaks down these transportation chains and prevents them from spreading in engineering progress across condominiums, streets, neighborhoods, or entire cities.

To reduce chains of transmission, epidemiologists estimate that about 70% of Brazilians will need to be kept indoors during the lockdown.

“In this sense, only really essential workers, such as those who integrate health services and the food supply chain, will be allowed to trade,” explains epidemiologist Ethel Maasel, a professor at the Federal University of Espírito Santo.

The World Health Organization says the opposite of what Eduardo Bolsonaro says: The organization says the lockdown could be effective in delaying the transmission of the coronavirus.

The purpose of the lockdown is to reduce the rate of reproduction of the Coronavirus, known as “R”. When the index “R” is above 1, the epidemic expands; When it falls below 1, it decreases. Lockdown was used by many countries at a time when “R” was well above 1.

But the World Health Organization recommends caution for governments that choose to adopt it, given the impact restrictions could have on people’s mental health.

In a question-and-answer session posted on its website, the World Health Organization said, as of December 31, the World Health Organization said: “Large-scale physical distance measures and movement restrictions, often referred to as lockdowns, can delay transmission of the Coronavirus. This limits contact between people., 2020.

The entity recommends that each healthy salad weigh the benefits and closing costs according to its specific case.

“Nevertheless, these measures can have a profound negative impact on individuals, societies and societies, by making social and economic life almost impasse. These measures disproportionately affect disadvantaged groups, including the poor, migrants, internally displaced persons and refugees, who live most of the time in Places crowded with few resources, and they depend on daily work to earn their livelihood, “the entity says.

“The World Health Organization recognizes that, at some points, some countries have had no choice but to issue stay-at-home requests and other time-saving measures.”

“Governments should make the most of the additional time granted through lockdown measures, and do everything they can to develop their capabilities to detect, isolate, test and take care of all cases; track and quarantine all contacts; engage, empower and allow people to lead the community response and more.”

“WHO expects countries to use targeted interventions where and when needed, depending on the local situation.”

Likewise, the World Health Organization does not use the term “social distance” that was published by Eduardo Bolsonaro. The entity prefers to adopt the term “physical distance,” as the entity stresses that it is important for people to remain in social contact, even if they are physically distant, to avoid the spread of the virus.

The controversy surrounding the lockdown revolves around its effectiveness and costs to residents.

In October, thousands of researchers and health professionals signed a letter known as the Barrington Great Declaration.

The group is calling for lockdown policies to focus on the most vulnerable, allowing healthy people to lead their lives normally.

They argue that maintaining strict restriction policies until a vaccine is available would cause “irreparable harm, with the least privileged suffering disproportionate harm.”

But many scientists and health officials believe the lockdown is necessary to contain the epidemic. A British government study indicated that the “R” number fell to 0.6 after the first close in April of last year.

That is, at the end of the lockdown, every 1,000 infected people were transmitting the virus to 600 others, who were passing it on to 360 others and so on – reducing the scale of the epidemic.

In Brazil, restrictions have been adopted by governors and mayors to limit the spread of the virus. Several states have adopted a traffic light system, with greater restrictions imposed in places hardest hit by the epidemic.

But the federal government is against any kind of lockdown. Health Minister Marcelo Quiroga spoke out against the measure this month.

I ask you: “Who wants to close? “Nobody wants to lock down. What we have from a practical point of view is the adoption of effective health measures that prevent the lockdown, not least because the population is not complying with the lockdown.”

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