Wednesday (January 31, 2024) marks 4 years since the United Kingdom's final exit from the European Union. Turmoil gripped the Conservative Party, which has ruled the country since 2010, from a referendum held in June 2016 until ratification in January 2020. There have been 5 Prime Ministers since the referendum, 3 of them post-Brexit. .
A series of changes in the leadership of the ruling party could affect the results of this year's elections. Opinion polls indicate that Labor has won this year's election, scheduled for the 2nd semester. This is the first UK parliamentary election after leaving the European Union.
The Tories – as members of the Conservative Party are known – have been in power for 14 years, but the returns to power have been better. Prime Minister David Cameron, who led the party to Downing Street for the first time in 13 years, resigned in 2016 because he disagreed with Brexit, which was later approved in a referendum.
He was replaced by Theresa May, who is tasked with approving the divorce with the EU in parliament. failure He left the government in defeat after 3 years in 2019. Boris Johnson took office and reached a deal at Westminster, but a Covid-19 scandal forced him to resign in 2022.
Liz Truss was elected to succeed John, but a disastrous economic plan led to her downfall within 50 days of taking office. Current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak may suffer the same fate, but in elections. According to a YouGov survey published in early 2024, the Prime Minister was disapproved by 64% of people.
Despite the leadership changes, Adrien Albala, professor of political science at UnB (University of Brasilia), assesses the episode as, above all, a case of government destabilization. “It showed a certain irony and drew voters' attention to the seriousness of the party”He said Shakti360.
“In some ways, the Conservative Party has shown itself to be inconsistent and unprepared for the big issues facing the world and the UK in particular”he said.
The UK's main economic indicators have also been affected since the implementation of Brexit. Inflation, which usually does not exceed 2% per annum, started rising in April 2021 and peaked at 11.1% in October 2022. The unemployment rate, normally between 3% and 4%, hit a record high of 5.1% in December 2020. The interest rate, which has not reached 1%, will start rising in December 2021, 1 year after the end of the Brexit transition period. Today the rate stands at 5.25%, a 15-year high.
“Of course, the UK's exit from the European Union has had a negative impact on the country's economic indicators. High inflation, rising unemployment rates and rising interest rates are a reflection of the uncertainties and changes in trade and regulatory relations caused by Brexit.Thomas Ferdinand Haye, Professor at the Institute of Strategic Studies at the UFF (Université Federal Fluminense) Shakti360.
New UK elections will be held in the second half of 2024, with no date set yet. A poll published by YouGov on 24 January found that the Conservatives had only 20% of voting intentions, compared to 47% for Labour.
Another study by the same firm indicated that Labor could win 385 of the 650 seats in parliament, returning to power with a huge majority after 14 years. On the other hand, the Conservatives will win only 169 seats, compared to the 365 they won in 2019. If the result holds true, it will be the Conservatives' worst performance since John Major lost the election to Tony Blair in 1997.
“Rishi Sunak, I believe facing low approval ratings will hurt the Conservative Party's electoral prospects”He said hey. “If Labor knows how to take advantage of the uncertainties created by recent leadership changes in government, the current situation will no doubt be to their advantage,” he said. he said.
On the other hand, Albala assesses that the new Labor government currently led by Keir Starmer will not be as left-wing as Jeremy Corbyn, who led the party from 2015 to 2020.
“Even though we're so close to the election, it's a bit dangerous to completely dismiss the Tory turn. Now, the Labor turn has to be taken with caution. The current leader is not Corbyn, he's more left-wing. He's a sort of Tony Blair, a bit more right-wing. In other words, it's It will be a centrist government.He said.
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