Climate Change: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Outlook for South America | Global Warming

It is the first time that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change United Nations agencyHIM-HER-IT) – Determines the responsibility of human actions in increasing the temperature of the earth, no documento “Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis”.

The researchers also made regional predictions about the impact of climate change, including in Central and South America. See the main conclusions about the changes that will be in the region:

High confidence that this will happen:

• Average temperatures probably increased in all sub-regions. (see below) NS It will continue to increase at rates above the world average.;
• Change in Mean Precipitation: Increased Precipitation in Northwest South America (ColombiaAnd Peru NS Ecuador) and in the southeast region (UruguayAnd Paraguay and part of Argentina NS Brazil Southern Region and parts of the Southeast and Midwest).
• Relative sea level has grown over the past three decades at a rate higher than the global average in the South Atlantic and North Atlantic. In the eastern Pacific, growth was below the global average.
• It is very likely that the relative sea level rise in the oceans around Central and South America will continue, which contributes to an increase in coastal flooding in low-lying areas and coastal retreat in sandy parts;
• Marine heat waves are also expected to increase across the region throughout the 21st century.

Medium confidence that this will happen:

• Change in Mean Precipitation: Decreased Precipitation in Northeastern South America (N.E. Brazil) and southwest region )Chile and south Peru).

Sub-regions of South America

Northeastern South America (NES) – Northeast Brazil:

• high confidence that there will be a dominant increase in the duration of drought;
• The average confidence that the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation, as well as precipitation-induced flooding, will increase if the global temperature rises by 2°C or more.

Northern South America (NSA) – Northern Brazilian Amazon, to the east of ColombiaAnd VenezuelaAnd GuyanaAnd Suriname NS French Guiana:

• high confidence in the prevailing increase in the number of drought days and the frequency of droughts;
• Medium confidence that the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation, as well as rain-induced flooding, will increase if global temperature rises by 2°C or more.

South American Monsoon (SAM) – The southern Brazilian Amazon, part of the Midwest NS Bolivia:

• There is little confidence in expected changes in precipitation, but high confidence that the South American monsoon will be delayed until the 21st century.
• There are projections of an increase in agricultural and ecological drought towards the middle of the twenty-first century, to 2°C of global warming and above (high confidence).
• Increases in one or more aspects between drought, drought, and fire climate (high confidence) will affect a wide range of sectors, including agriculture, forestry, health and ecosystems.
• The intensity and frequency of precipitation and precipitation is expected to increase (medium confidence) for global warming by 2°C and above.
• In the Amazon, the number of days per year with maximum temperatures above 35°C will increase by more than 150 days by the end of the 21st century in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, while it is expected to increase in less than 60 days in the SSP1-2.6 scenario (confidence High).

Southeast South America (SES) – South, Southeast and part of the Brazilian MidwestAnd ParaguayAnd Uruguay and a large part of Argentina:

• Growth rates in average and intensity of precipitation have been observed since the 1960s. This change is caused by the increased emission of greenhouse gases and aerosols and the depletion of the ozone layer;
• Medium confidence that the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation, as well as rain-induced flooding, will increase if global temperature rises by 2°C or more.