Allianz Trade specialists have revised the forecasts for the Portuguese economy for 2023 upwards, and now they expect that Portugal’s GDP will increase by 2.5% in 2023 and 1.2% next year. In the last quarter, the COSEC contributor predicted that the Portuguese economy would expand by 1% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024.
The company also revised upwards its forecast for the eurozone for 2023. Specialists are now pointing to 0.5% growth this year for the single currency group and 1% economic growth in 2024. This data indicates that some of the largest economies entered recession earlier this year. , the study “Climbing the Wall of Anxiety – Prospects for the Summer EconomyIt reflects in particular the difficult context that some eurozone economies faced at the beginning of this year and that may extend throughout 2023. The German economy, which is the largest in the eurozone, is supposed to end the year with a contraction of 0.1%, and France, in turn, is expected to grow. 0.6%, and Spain’s GDP is expected to expand by 2% and Italy’s by 1.1%.
Experts, in this update of the economic forecasts, are a little more optimistic, thanks to some resilience that they did not expect during the first few months, due in particular to stronger than expected tourism in some eurozone economies.
As for inflation, the world’s leading credit insurer forecasts that Portugal will end the year with an inflation rate of 5.3%. For 2024 the inflation rate should be 3%. These figures are close to the eurozone average, which is expected to post inflation of 5.6% this year and 2.6% in 2024, heading towards the European Central Bank’s target of close to 2%.
Review the global economy upwards
The global economy, according to COSEC shareholder forecasts, should close the year with growth of 2.5%. Next year, global GDP is expected to expand by 2.3%.
The US economy, which is the largest in the world, is expected to grow by 1.5% this year, and by 0.7% in 2024. Specialists note that the strong economic recovery that was felt in the first weeks of the year on the other side of the Atlantic should decline. Slightly acknowledged that there will be some deterioration in economic conditions in the second semester, ie due to greater constraints in credit conditions.
As for China, the world’s second-largest economy, the world’s leading credit insurance company forecasts an economic expansion greater than previous estimates, at 5.8% this year, followed by a slight slowdown of 4.1% in 2024. This data thus reflects an improved outlook for the economy. chinese. Experts point out that, supported by consumption, the Chinese economy is expected to recover in 2023.
risk factors
As 2024 approaches, other concerns emerge from the experts, who point out that despite the upward revisions to economic estimates, there are some warning factors, such as the state of impending elections in economies that account for about 75% of the population. global gross domestic product. Austria, India, Mexico, Poland, Romania, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, USA, UK are some examples of countries that will be in the process.
Inflation is at high levels, as we have seen, and if it persists for long periods of time also increases the risks of more restrictive monetary policy on the part of central banks. Other factors to consider are the possibility of tightening monetary policy in the US – with the Fed keeping interest rates high – or even new restrictions on energy supplies in Europe.
On the other hand, an eventual cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine would help reduce much of the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook and allow for more efficient management of resources.
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