Six months later, Miley faces a trial by fire in the Argentine government

Six months after assuming the presidency with a plan to turn Argentina upside down, politically and economically, Javier Miley It is receiving praise from economists and the International Monetary Fund itself for putting accelerating inflation on a downward trend and, thanks to a surprise cut in subsidies, setting the country's first quarter of primary surplus in more than a decade. However, he is still struggling to get his package of reform measures through Parliament, which his administration relies on to effectively achieve lasting results – a difficulty beyond expectations, but which does not fail to undermine popular enthusiasm for the promises, bit by bit. A very liberal revolution. Therefore, Miley is moving against the clock to try to introduce a set of articles called the “Basic Law”, known as the “Comprehensive Law” (for all, in Latin).

Given the numerous indications that it would be blocked in the Senate, the project was removed from the agenda by members of the government themselves, who in recent days have been working behind the scenes to win over the same politicians they opposed during the election campaign. “You are class,” shouted the current resident of Casa Rosada. The reality check that Miley faced came in the form of a lot of negotiations over this comprehensive plan that aimed, as a whole, to implement wide-ranging reforms at the same time, extracting benefits from different strata of the population in one fell swoop and giving them great powers.

But in the dryness of practical life, the 664 articles became 232, and thus, the law was approved last month by the chamber, with many of the president's opponents beginning to derisively refer to him as a “minibus.” Now it was time to see how negotiations with opponents in the Senate might end, a matter of survival for Miley's ambitious offensive, which he had dreamed of celebrating in Cordoba in an event shrouded in pomp, the Pact of May. Scheduled to be implemented on Saturday the 25th, a national holiday that marks the first Argentine cry for freedom in the midst of the independence process in 1816, the law, which will include governors, central members of the local political council, proposes to “reestablish the state.” Based on liberals. Until the last minutes, Miley was still thinking about the best way to get out under the circumstances. He added: “If the agreement is not in May, it will be in June or July.”

The current version of the Basic Law on the table, even if it is dried out, foresees major changes in Argentina's direction and direction. In the Chamber, Miley did not receive the carte blanche he sought to act by decree for three years in eleven areas of government. He had to be content with four (energy, finance, economics, and administration), for only one year. In parallel, he was able to implement a labor reform that makes employment more flexible, extends the trial period for new employees and changes retirement rules, but reserves the right to strike in essential services and compulsory union contributions – two topics that have been in his sights. When he waved his electoral flags. From the list that mandated the privatization of all state-owned enterprises, two core companies, the oil company YPF and Banco de la Nación, were removed, although the airline Aerolíneas Argentinas remains strongly present on the list. “Miley wanted to change everything overnight, but the game is much more complicated,” confirms economist Rui Santacruz, from the Federal University of Fluminense.

Approval of the package is crucial to consolidate some of the good results already recorded during these six months. In April, inflation, the biggest national disaster, fell into the single digits, remaining at 8.8% compared to 11% in March, and government accounts were closed in the black for the first time in sixteen years, a mark that was celebrated by financial markets. . Even the peso, the sanctioned national currency, has gained relative stability, after practically turning to dust under the previous administration, led by Peronist Alberto Fernandez. Duty observers recall that such advances were the result of brutal pressure, including cuts in subsidies and benefits, which had an impact on the pocketbook. In the short term, this has contributed to an increase in poverty, which has risen from 44% to 60% of the population since December, and a slowdown in the economy. Expectations indicate that the gross domestic product will shrink by 3.3% this year.

In a predictable script – Miley warned that “the medicine will be bitter” and opposition was already raging from the start – the powerful union machinery in the brothers They started moving. At the beginning of May, a general strike against the reforms paralyzed transport and took to the streets of major cities. “Miley needs to hurry, because population confidence is declining as the recession deepens,” says economist Livio Ribeiro, partner at consultancy BRCG. Although he lost thirteen points of support, he is still in a good position in the 45% range, but he knows that launching his tax reforms is a prerequisite for attracting investment and improving the government’s accounts.

Fiscal balance is part of the Millennium Ten Commandments, which he wants to highlight in the May Charter, as well as the sanctity of private property and reducing public spending to 25% of GDP. The provinces' commitment to continued exploitation of natural resources was also cited, an agenda that hurts environmentalists and is intended to garner support from conservatives concerned about the influx of money. “In Argentina, without the support of regional leaders, it is very difficult to increase political capital,” says economist Francisco Olivero of the Torcuato di Tella University in Buenos Aires.

Walking on such a fine line, in which the bitterness of the measures actually implemented could not go beyond the point, Maile appointed his sister Karina in charge of the General Secretariat of the Presidency, and his closest advisor Santiago Caputo for the negotiations. In the Senate. The three form what has come to be called the “iron triangle,” a group in which the president stands out with his sharp tongue. Following the playbook of the global far-right, the leader of the rebel locks issues catchphrases, diverting the focus from internal problems and often causing unnecessary headaches.

On Tuesday the 21st, he sparked a crisis with Spain during the “Vox” conference in Madrid, short for the Spanish far right, where he launched an attack on First Lady Begonia Gomez, wife of Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. He described her as “corrupt,” referring to the investigation that had already been opened against her. In response, the Prime Minister summoned the ambassador in Buenos Aires to his country. An apology would have calmed the situation, but Miley didn't say a word. It wasn't the first time. Presidents Gabriel Boric of Chile, Gustavo Petro of Colombia, and even Pope Francis were already in his sights. Thus, it keeps the extremist group mobilized, and that is all. To make the jump you really want, it is recommended to act more wisely.

Published in VEJA on May 24, 2024, Issue 2894