Pre-market: Someone holds this optimistic

Good morning people!

The Brazilian stock exchange continues to rise, regardless of the health crisis and problems Brasilia, And that remains on the radar by clicking on exchange And interest.

Without the technical factor of the index’s future maturity, we will see how far this optimism continues to take us – so far, it has flirted with us again with levels above 120K points after more than two months, which is an important sign for us.

Overseas, US futures are showing optimism this morning, with the corporate earnings season already underway – soon, we’ll be here. Vision…

Full steam

Investors used this week to poke fun at the risks we talked about here.

Ibovespa, Brazil’s main stock market index, It reached 120 thousand points after a long time, And strengthening the position to be able to break new records in the future.

However, it is necessary to assess whether optimism from Monday to Wednesday is a source of explanation for the maturity of futures. If this is the case, the delivery of the emptying may be more difficult.

At the very least, international openness is not a hindrance.

In Brasilia, the source of our lack of sleep most of the time, it is not yet known what alternative will be adopted.

Nobody expected Paolo Guides, perhaps Brazil’s most liberal minister in long, to be the person who spent most of his time in history, as well as gaining a reputation for being a “hole in the roof”. Not his fault, of course.

The epidemic has dealt a severe blow to the financial panoramas around the world, including Brazil, which was already very vulnerable. In the face of the inapplicable budget, in the words of the economic team itself, and the consumer price index from Covid, validated by the STF, the economy ministry has little room to negotiate.

As we expected, the final result should be presented only in 45 minutes of the second half, on April 22, the deadline to deliver Bolsonaro’s solution to the impasse.

Monitor the retailer

The 10-year US Treasury yield reached 1.62% this Thursday (15), ahead of the release of the US retail sales data, which should show an increase after distributing $ 1,400, resulting in the first $ 1.9 trillion. Stimulus package.

For Uncle Sam’s Land, who is already following the results season for the first quarter, data is a milestone of the day.

It appears that the impact of additional income cannot be contained in the March data.

Retail sales might have increased twice as much if we counted on the effects Trump’s $ 600 check had on January sales, which were up 8% – now imagine with a 2.5 times bigger package.

However, many economists and financiers will be more concerned with ascertaining changes in the consumption pattern than they are simply concerned with the growth of the index.

As the economy reopens, consumers are expected to cut spending on goods and accelerate spending on services.

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, released yesterday (14), announced an increase in demand for workers in the hotel and entertainment sectors.

However, even as activity picks up, the Fed appears to have already convinced investors that it will bear the higher inflation, as evidenced by the interest rate adjustment.

The environment can be conducive to taking action.

Stability for the future?

The UK, which has already begun to re-open the economy, has some interesting indications for the future.

It wasn’t long since most of Europe looked at the United Kingdom with amazement, which had the highest death rate in the world, even in January.

Now, thanks to a fast and effective vaccination program, the Eurozone is jealous of Britons, as bars across the country opened again yesterday, welcoming customers outdoors for the first time in months.

In places like the UK, and soon, the USA, it will be possible to see structural changes that are in place to stay; That is, it will not be the same after the epidemic.

New home sales in London, for example, are down nearly 40%, indicating that the entire modernization process we have accelerated from 2020 to here has had an impact on how people view life in the city – living in a city is a lifestyle choice, not a Economic necessity.

We see something similar in São Paulo, where many people are taking advantage of a home office to be able to live in the countryside.

Write it down!

The Eurozone will release final consumer price inflation to many economies for the month of March.

Since inflation is the subject of the moment, or at least until the end of the first quarter, it is worth a watch.

There, the forecast for the earnings season, which starts next week, has been confirmed – some companies are already providing preliminary data.

In Brazil, notice the service sector growth in February. The data is not expected to show a solid recovery, and if it does, it will be largely ignored, as it does not capture most of the new restrictions in place since March.

In the United States, the agenda is just as full. We’ll have retail sales, as mentioned earlier, jobless claims, data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (a very interesting compendium of economic data, with different areas of approach) and industrial production.

Corporate results and monetary authorities’ speeches have room for this farm as well.

Finally, in Asia, the highlight is the Chinese GDP data, as well as industrial production and retail sales for the Asian giant.

What has changed in my life?

Yesterday (14), Coinbase Global became the most valuable exchange in the United States amid strong demand for new public stocks on the cryptocurrency platform.

Shares opened at $ 381 before rising to $ 424 – after noon, they corrected the rally.

Base currencies Maintain a live listing rather than a standard initial public offering, Which means that the company has not raised funds through the IPO process and does not have the traditional IPO price to measure stock redemptions on the first day.

In any case, the opening day came that Coinbase was valued at over $ 100 billion, based on the number of fully diluted shares (it ended up hitting a market cap of $ 86 billion after the first day of trading). CME Group, the second most valuable exchange in the United States, has a market capitalization of around $ 74 billion. Unlike CME, Coinbase is an essential part of the cryptocurrency ecosystem and a barometer of the increasingly dominant adoption of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Coinbase Live List It arrives in time for the platform, Due to the increasing demand for cryptocurrencies and record prices of Bitcoin, which reached the level of $ 64,000 yesterday.

The company is expected to attract widespread interest in the future, including ETFs that want exposure to the world of cryptocurrencies, but cannot truly own Bitcoin.

Coinbase’s success on the Nasdaq will be a crucial gauge of investor interest in a corner of the market that is starting to attract the attention of more established players on Wall Street.

Watch!

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Hug,

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