- Bernd Debusmann Jr.*
- BBC News in Washington
Trump expected a Republican wave, but he found a wave
Before a rally of supporters in Ohio earlier this week, former US President Donald Trump made a promise: a “big announcement” on November 15.
It was believed that the date would be exactly a week after the expected “red wave” of the Republican Party’s midterm victories, which many observers interpreted as a test of his influence on the party.
The wave, however, broke out like a ripple. Trump’s announcement — likely entering his name into the 2024 presidential race — is expected to come after an election in which many of his approved candidates performed poorly, likely deepening questions about the viability of the “Make America” brand. “As a constant element of American conservatism.
Perhaps most troubling for the former president was the resounding success in the polls for Florida governor – and his likely rival in 2024 – Ron DeSantis, who was re-elected with big improvements in all walks of life – including women and Latinos – while he freaked out with Trump’s escalation.
But after all, so far, what has Trump’s midterm night been and what should the result mean for his political future?
All eyes on Ron DeSantis
As Republican candidates across the country faced unexpectedly close rivalries, DeSantis, 44, won a landslide victory of nearly 20 points over Democratic challenger Charlie Crist, including a clear majority among Hispanic voters.
Four years ago, by comparison, he won Florida by less than half a percentage point.
The victory will increase speculation of a possible presidential race in 2024 with the presence of this politician, which American analysts have dubbed “Trump by substance” or “Trump 2.0.”
And at his win gala in Tampa on Tuesday night (8/11), his supporters chanted, “Two more years!” – In a clear indication of his desire to leave Florida in 2024 to run for the White House.
Among those who see DeSantis now as a stronger candidate for the White House than Trump is Mike Cernovich, a right-wing commentator described by Politico as a “tireless supporter of Trump.”
“Trump has no chance in 2024. After tonight, that’s not in question,” Cernovich wrote on Twitter on Tuesday evening. “DeSantis in 2024 or accept total defeat”.
The prospect of meeting DeSantis in two years has not gone unnoticed by Trump, who has warned that DeSantis “could hurt a lot” and that he would reveal “things about him that he wouldn’t be very grateful for.”
In an interview with the BBC, Patrick Ruffini, a Republican scholar and strategist, described Trump as a “wounded animal”.
Also on Twitter, on Wednesday morning, former Trump spokesman and Gettr CEO Jason Miller came out to defend his former boss, given the findings.
“As for my former boss, President Trump, he’s still the leader of the Republican Party, and there were a lot of positive signals in Arizona, Wisconsin and Georgia last night, the three states he needs to win in 2024.”
Trump’s Endorsement Package – And Its Controversial Results
Ahead of the midterm elections, Trump endorsed dozens of congressional candidates, as well as others vying for state governors and state representatives.
While the final election results remain unclear – and may remain elusive for some time – it is increasingly clear that Trump’s results have been mixed at best.
Of the leading Senate candidates he endorsed, for example, only one — Ohio Republican J.D. Vance — won a clear victory, defeating Democratic Representative Tim Ryan.
Other candidates endorsed by Trump, including Pennsylvania Senate candidate Mehmet Oz and Michigan Governor Theodore Nixon nominee, have lost, while the results of several other races are not yet complete.
“This morning I called Jon Fetterman and congratulated him. I wish him and his family all the best, both personally and as the next Senator of the United States. The campaigns in our region have been the honor of a lifetime, and I will take it with me,” Oz said in a statement acknowledging defeat without referring to Any kind of electoral fraud, as is the norm among Trumpists.
Ahead of the election, John Hodak, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C., said defeats of Trump-supported candidates could “raise doubts about his political acumen” among potential supporters or reluctant voters.
So far, Trump has ruled out the possibility of holding him responsible for the defeats of his candidates. On his Truth Social network, the former president hailed a “big night” for his candidates and boasted of 174 wins from their names, compared to just 9 losses.
On election night, he also said he should “take full credit” for his victories and “not be blamed” for his defeats.
However, some have already begun to blame Trump for the results, in a process that should not end there.
With popularity and inflation tumbling around 8% annually, far from the 2% target, the Biden administration had already expected to lose control of the House and Senate in the midterm elections.
Historically, the president has been punished by voters in these elections—and that’s what happened in 36 of 39 midterm elections.
However, the Republican victory margin in the House turned out to be much thinner than expected. And in the Senate, Democrats could maintain a slim majority.
good side?
Trump may still have reason to be happy with Tuesday’s results.
Chief among them is the fact that the Republican-controlled House of Representatives – the most likely outcome – could dismantle the committee investigating the January 6, 2021 riots, which has long sought to link Trump to the Capitol invasion.
The committee recently issued a subpoena ordering Trump to testify by November 14, the day before his “big announcement.”
“This is likely to be dismantled,” said Grant Riehr, a professor of political science at Syracuse University, referring to the inquiry.
Moreover, the election elected dozens of Biden deniers in the 2020 election to seats in Congress or the state, meaning Trump can count on a large bloc of political allies who believe — or say they believe — he was the legitimate winner in the previous presidential election. .
attributed to him, Getty Images
The Republican-controlled House of Representatives should dismantle the Capitol Invasion Commission
Polls also show that Trump remains popular with broad swathes of the Republican voter base, a fact any potential candidate – whether DeSantis or another prominent Republican – will have to contend with if they hope to replace him as the party’s favorite candidate for the House of Representatives. . white.
David Froome, an editor at The Atlantic who ran the Republican Party… wrote former President George W. Bush.
“Refusing to play the game is not an option, because he will play, whether he likes it or not. There is no choice but to play too.”
*With Mariana Sanchez in Washington
“Proud explorer. Freelance social media expert. Problem solver. Gamer.”
