COBOOM makes mistakes, exposes political rifts and increases uncertainty about interest rates

COBOOM makes mistakes, exposes political rifts and increases uncertainty about interest rates

The scenarios haven't changed much

During this period, signals from the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) that it would not only be able to reduce the pace of cuts in benchmark interest rates, but even increase them, fostered instability around the world, with negative effects. , especially in emerging countries. Economies, in dollar prices. In Brazil, the dollar rose to 5.30 Brazilian reals, but gradually fell to around 5 Brazilian reals.

The effects of this rise in the value of the dollar on inflation expectations, with new indications that the Fed will maintain its policy of lowering interest rates, albeit at a slower pace, were ultimately minimal. The IPCA variance forecast in 2024 continues at less than 4%, with a decline in 2025, the now relevant Copom target, to around 3.5%, close to the center of the 3% target. Even the climate disaster in Rio Grande do Sul, which will negatively impact food supplies and inflation, has not changed inflation estimates as a whole, as measured by IPCA.

A little clarifying statement

There is nothing in the statement to indicate what led to the division in the decisions of the KOBOOM members. The text, harsh in its assessment of the problems and dangers of public spending to control inflation, allows us to conclude that the older and more “hard-line” managers supported keeping Selek in a more restrictive sphere, in response to the government’s possible leniency with the public sector. Accounts. .

This will lead many others to conclude that the Council, with its new composition from 2025, which includes a president and a majority of members appointed by Lula's government, will be more lenient on fiscal policy, and thus on inflation.

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About the Author: Camelia Kirk

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