Election forecasts updated on Wednesday (17) by the newspaper Economist He points out that Donald Trump has a huge lead over current US President Joe Biden.
In national polls, the former Republican president is at 46% of voting intentions, while the Democrat is at 43%.
The poll also projects that Trump has about a 3 in 4 chance of winning the electoral colleges needed for his victory, leaving just a 1 in 4 chance for Biden.
Candidates need 270 schools to win the presidential race. Polls Economist They point out that the Republican can win 312 seats compared to 226 for the current Democratic president.
In most of the key states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia and Arizona), Republicans appear to have a comfortable advantage, the newspaper reported. These six states (which together have 77 percent of the total vote) will be crucial to the November election.
In 2016, Trump won five out of six. In the 2020 election, Biden won all of them.
Electoral projection of Economist The country has witnessed major changes since the start of the presidential election campaign last March.
On the first day (March 1), Trump’s support was 58% compared to 42% for Biden. In the latest update (July 17), after the attack on the former US president, his support for his candidacy rose to 77% compared to 23% for his Democratic rival.
How to prepare forecasts Economist It takes into account each major candidate's chances of winning in each state and the overall Electoral College.
The chart was developed with a team of academics at Columbia University in New York. The forecast combines national and state-level polls, key data on the state of the economy, historical voting patterns, and each state’s demographics to predict the likelihood of different race outcomes.
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