Why This Week Could Determine Biden's Future | US Election 2024

This week could determine Joe Biden's future.

Twelve days after the dismal performance in the last debate, which we can remember One of the most disastrous From modern American history, the Democratic president The struggle for political survival under intense domestic and international scrutiny.

Biden will host leaders of the military alliance for three days of meetings and public events, culminating in a solo press conference on Thursday afternoon (11).

It is a moment that should make Biden, a man well versed in foreign affairs, feel comfortable in. But it also raises the stakes for his presidency, which are already high, because a poor performance will have domestic and international repercussions.

One The mistake could lead to a political scramble among Democrats.Which will end his hope of reaching The general election is in November, let alone winning it.

It could also increase allies' concerns. Europeans fear the growing possibility For a new government Donald TrumpAnd the radical changes in foreign policy that will accompany it.

“Biden started this week weak,” says Kristen Berzina, director of Geostrategy North at the German Marshall Fund, a U.S. public policy think tank. “We don’t know how he’s going to come out of it.”

Foreign leaders worried

Many European leaders are known to be concerned about Trump and his foreign policy strategy. The former president has downplayed the importance of multilateral international alliances.

But over the past two weeks, Berzina says, these leaders have seen something new—a Worry about Biden.

She points out that after his faltering performance in the debate, American allies began to doubt whether the president was up to the task.

On their way to NATO meeting We hope to see some evidence that his performance that night was an aberration, and not reflective of a new reality..

“It’s unsettling to have a close ally, your most important ally, who is hesitant,” Berzina explains. “So I think There is strong hope that Biden will pass the test.But if he can't do that, it will raise more questions about America's credibility.”

The focus will be on the US president as he attends summit sessions, hosts foreign leaders at the White House, and participates in bilateral meetings with key leaders, including newly elected British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Even if NATO meetings are held behind closed doors, information about Biden’s performance—both good and bad—is sure to leak out.

Democratic Party Panic Attack

Biden faces a more difficult task this week at the domestic level.

The President referred to strengthening and expanding NATO. Confronting Russian aggression is one of its main achievements.

This is what distinguishes his leadership from Trump's. – as well as any Democrat who might replace him in the election – and the NATO summit will be his chance to show that to the American people.

“Who will be able to hold NATO together like me?” the president said in an interview with ABC's George Stephanopoulos last Friday (05).

He added that the NATO meeting would be a good way to assess his capabilities. “Come and listen,” he said. “See what they say.”

But simply making up for the low expectations at the NATO summit and Thursday's press conference may not be enough for many politicians, pundits and party activists who are already calling for him to drop out of the race.

“Just getting some good engagement isn’t going to stop the questions,” says Bill Shear, a liberal pundit and editor of Washington Monthly, who recently wrote a column calling for Biden to be replaced by Vice President Kamala Harris.

“Time was of the essence in nipping all the speculation in the bud, and they've wasted a week. There's no clear way out of this situation,” he added.

Shear, a longtime Biden supporter, says the president's attempts to respond now through press interviews, letters and calls to Democratic politicians come after public opinion has coalesced against him.

Once that sentiment is fully established in the voting intentions polls — which could take several weeks — it will likely be too late to replace it smoothly.

“I understand how hard it is when you’re nearing the end of your life and you’re not performing as well as you used to,” Sher says. “Having to come to terms with that publicly must be painful.”

But the data showing Biden losing support and facing defeat in November is becoming increasingly clear.

Polls show that nearly three-quarters of Americans — and even a majority of Democrats — believe the president should resign. Six Democratic members of Congress have called on him to withdraw his nomination, while many others have expressed mixed support.

But the The president continues to say he will move forward with his campaign, counting on delegates at the Democratic National Convention to ensure he is the party's nominee. The decision is firmly in his hands, and if he can get through the week without making any major mistakes, he may indeed survive the impending storm.

However, this week’s story has already been set. It is not about NATO celebrating its 75th anniversary with an eye on the challenges ahead.

Instead, it is a narrative that could decide whether Biden is politically capable of surviving to fight another day.