Global temperatures and precipitation patterns are affected by ocean and atmospheric phenomena. The most famous El Niño and La Niñacan affect Rainy season in Ceara. “But there are a variety of factors and they all need to be taken into account,” explains Miri Sakamoto, director of meteorology at Cearense Meteorology and Water Resources (Funceme).
In recent months, temperature conditions in the Pacific Ocean have been below average. “Forecast models show that La Niña is still in the early months of 2023 and that a neutral state, neither hot nor cold in the Pacific Ocean, should prevail during the rainy season,” Sakamoto explains.
However, the scenario does not guarantee a period of heavy rain. In this context, Atlantic conditions are key, as they affect the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). “For now, it has characteristics closer to neutral,” says the meteorologist. “But the Atlantic is a much smaller ocean than the Pacific, and changes can happen more quickly.”
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With this scenario, the outlook is more positive than if the world was under the influence of El Niño. The phenomenon determined by the heating of Pacific waters creates areas of moisture and atmospheric movements that make the formation of rain clouds in the Northeast impossible.
“In El Niño, it’s as if the updraft moves until it reaches the northeast and falls over our heads,” he casually explains. This flow makes precipitation difficult.
El Niño and La Niña: what are they?
El Niño and La Niña are part of the same atmospheric and oceanic phenomenon that occurs in the tropical Pacific Ocean and in the adjacent atmosphere. These are the cases where the tropical Pacific Ocean warmer (el niño) or cooler (La Niña) from the historical average. Change in water temperature has global effects on temperature and precipitation.
According to the National Institute of Space Research (Inpe) Weather Prediction and Climate Studies Center, projections for January-February-March 2023 indicate that waters over the tropical Pacific Ocean should remain cooler than the historical average (La Niña).
Predictions made by international institutes dedicated to the phenomenon do indeed show a transitional state: 50% of the duration of La Niña and 50% of the onset of neutral conditions.
Rainy season forecast
Funceme’s forecast for the 2023 rainy season will be released next Friday, the 20th, at an event in the Palácio da Abolição.
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