According to the Office for National Statistics, the volume of water reaching plants is below historical averages for the rainy season; Demand is rising
Hey ONS The National Electricity System Operator (National Electricity System Operator) issued a bulletin on Friday (February 16, 2024) declining forecasts for the volume of hydropower stations producing energy for the SIN (National Interconnected System). Authority data and rainfall forecasts sound the alarm in the electricity sector for the year 2024.
The operator had already drawn attention in recent weeks to reservoir levels, which are considered low for the rainy season. Major systems are expected to end February with water levels approaching 60%, below historical averages. here complete Report (PDF – 1 MB).
In early 2023, hydropower levels approached 90%. This year, by the end of the rainy season, in April, ONS forecasts are that the reservoir's flow will reach 50%.
For the end of February, the forecast for the volume of water reaching the plants, the so-called ENA (Energy Enriched Natural), has been revised downwards in all regions. In the Southeast/Central and West subsystem, the estimate decreased from 64% to 61% compared to the historical average. In the Northeast, expectations rose from 70% to 61% and in the South from 82% to 75%.
If confirmed, the February volume in the Southeast/Central West subsystem, the country's main system, would be the seventh lowest since 1930. The fear is that the scenario will worsen and lead to more significant indicators during the drought period. .
Requests
As if the impact on supply was not enough, the situation has become more sensitive due to the increase in energy consumption in Brazil. ONS forecasts continue to indicate accelerating demand in SIN. In February, the increase is estimated at 6.7% compared to the same month in 2023.
To meet demand, ONS has activated thermal stations, which serve mainly in the afternoon and early evening, which is considered peak consumption. It also imported energy from Argentina and Uruguay.
It is possible to expand these mechanisms if the situation worsens to ensure supplies, which leads to an increase in the electricity bill.
Even without a new heatwave in 2024, energy consumption has already surpassed the historic mark of 100,000 megawatts this year. This indicator was first reached in November 2023 and then repeated in December at the peak of hot temperatures.
