But it is clear that the reasons for the interruption must be relevant and convincing. This was not the case with what was observed in the economic scenario between March and May. The situation has changed, with increasing uncertainty and pressures, such as a temporary rise in dollar prices, but not to the point of reaching a consensus on the need to abandon the current trend.
Technical and political viewpoints
Taking into account that the “reputational risk” of loss of credibility, with violation of the “Future Guidelines”, was as great or greater than maintaining the reduction rate indicated in the Guidelines, with a statement and minutes indicating a more stringent interest rate policy in the future, it adopted Dissident managers have a clear political but technically based position.
The same can be said about the position of the four managers who voted in favor of Celik's 0.25 point cut – the majority position with Campos Neto breaking the tie. The majority position has undeniable technical elements, but it is also clearly political.
Despite signs that inflation will witness benign developments in the near future, as the minutes themselves record, there is a technical basis for considering that bullish drivers of inflation are, at present, “superior” to bearish ones. It is also a defensible point of view to emphasize fiscal policy uncertainties. As recorded in the minutes, the Department of Public Accounts must be “committed to debt sustainability,” as this “contributes to stabilizing inflation expectations.”
Protocols were not observed
What was missing was institutionalism in the actions of the B.C. Campos Neto also lacked greater efforts to seek a broader consensus, which would lead to a unanimous decision, while announcing increased uncertainty, which, as the meeting minutes indicate, requires more caution in determining the course of action. Base interest rates.
