The dollar should be a little less dominant in the next decade, a central bank survey suggests

expect central banks dollar continue to dominate global reserves in the next decade, although their impact will diminish slightly, the research suggests.”Global Public Investor 2023″ of the Official Forum for Monetary and Financial Institutions (OMFIF, in its English acronym), a think tank for central banks from the uk.

The document presents information from a survey of 75 central banks with international reserves of about US$5 trillion (about R$23.9 trillion).

On average, respondents expect the dollar’s share of global reserves to fall to 54% over the next decade, from less than 60% today. According to the research, the yuan chinese f euro It has the potential to benefit from the central bank’s diversification strategies in the medium term.

Presenters expect the yuan to account for an average of 6% of global reserves 10 years from now, up from less than 3% today. In general, central banks expect the dollar to remain dominant and the yuan is unlikely to gain significant traction as a reserve asset in the foreseeable future.

Among the central banks surveyed, 13% expect to increase their holdings of the yuan within the next two years, and 39% within the next 10 years.

Reserve managers are also interested in the euro: 14% plan to increase their euro holdings in the next two years. In 2021 and 2022, central banks had no such intention. Moreover, 9% of respondents expect to increase their euro holdings over the next 10 years.

The survey also shows that 6% of central banks surveyed expect to reduce their dollar holdings over the next 10 years. The research indicates that the change is in line with the slow trend of de-dollarization that has occurred for decades.